Abbas Mulls Elections If Pace Of Israel Imprisoning Hamas Members, Supporters Continues

Plausible for the Raïs to issue a call perhaps by the end of 2025, for elections to take place by the middle of 2026.

Ramallah, January 2 – The President of the Palestinian Authority acknowledged today that he will consider calling the first plebiscite in nearly two decades, provided that IDF maintains anti-terrorism operations against his rivals that will deprive those rivals of votes by killing, capturing, or otherwise incapacitating enough of those voters.

Aides to President Mahmoud Abbas – who also chairs the Palestine Liberation Organization and its leading faction, Fatah – told reporters today that Mr. Abbas has been monitoring the number of Hamas fighters and supporters that Israel has neutralized since last October 7, and, if the pace of such neutralizations keeps up, he will feel more secure about his faction emerging victorious in presidential and parliamentary elections, which he has not allowed to take place since 2005 and 2006, respectively. Abbas has now served nineteen years of his one four-year term.

Israeli estimates put the number of Hamas fighter deaths in the Gaza fighting at about 20,000, plus an estimated 14,000 prisoners. An unknown number of additional Hamas men have suffered debilitating injuries that will prevent them from casting any ballots if any election is held. The aides observed that the trend, if it continues at a reasonable rate, will reduce the margin necessary for Fatah to overcome and remain in power despite public opinion polls showing a decisive Hamas advantage among voters.

“We’re not there yet,” conceded Nabil Aburdeineh, a longtime Abbas confidant. “Surveys still indicate that too many Palestinians favor our rivals. But ongoing attrition of our rivals’ supporters in the electorate, given enough time, we expect to work in our favor. All things being equal, the direction right now makes it plausible for the Raïs to issue a call perhaps by the end of 2025, for elections to take place by the middle of 2026. But it’s still too early to make that determination.”

The number of eligible voters remains a matter of considerable ambiguity. Technically, citizens of the “State of Palestine” include many who do not reside, or have ever resided, within the self-rule areas defined by the 1993 autonomy agreement with Israel: millions of “refugees” live in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere, the majority of them not refugees by the standard legal definition, but descended of Arabs who fled or were expelled as fighting raged amid Israel’s war to establish itself and survive. The number of those “refugees” may fall up to 40% short of “official” tallies, since the larger the figure, the greater political and diplomatic pressure can be brought to bear against Israel to “rectify” the situation associated with the Jewish State’s creation.

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